Seniors housing: two lost years, but plenty of cause for optimism

Last month, we launched the latest “Unlocking Potential for Seniors Housing Development” report, which we produce jointly with Knight Frank.

This is the fourth iteration of the report, with previous versions published in 2017, 2020 and 2022. It is also quite possibly the most interesting, not least because of the light it shines on wider issues in the planning system and in society at large.

The last two years have not been kind to local plan preparation in England. The overall rates of plan production have plummeted as several local authorities either delayed or withdrew their local plans to get to grips with ever changing government policy. According to the Home Builder’s Federation (HBF), between 2022 and November 2023, approximately 64 local planning authorities had delayed or withdrawn their local plans.

It has also been a time of unprecedented political turmoil. Since the last report was published, there has been two changes of prime minister, three secretaries of state at DLUHC, and six housing ministers. We have seen the Levelling-Up & Regeneration Act 2023 (LURA) enter the statute books, major amendments made to the NPPF, and the publication of more than a dozen consultations on a wide variety of proposed reforms to the planning system.

This is reflected in the findings of this year’s research. Whilst previous versions of this report have shown slow but steady significant progress; the pace of change has stalled over the last two years.

Between 2017 and 2022, there was a 13.5% increase in English local authorities that had both adopted planning policies and allocated sites for seniors housing. Between 2022 and 2024, the figure remained static. There has been no improvement at all. A third of local authorities are still to adopt specific planning policies and site allocations addressing seniors housing. Some 34 have moved backwards over the last two years.  There was an improvement in the number of local authorities who either had a policy or an allocation, but it is slight – at 1.3% and 3.4% respectively.

And yet, despite this inertia, a sense of urgency finally seems to be taking hold. The Older Person’s Housing Taskforce is due to report later this year. Government support for the sector is being felt – resulting both in greater recognition in the NPPF itself, but also in the Levelling Up and Regeneration Act 2023.

When brought into effect:

• Provisions in LURA will place the secretary of state under a legal duty to provide detailed guidance on how local authorities should meet the needs of the elderly population; and
• National development management policies have the potential to make a huge difference to the sector and could, if the government chose, render this research completely redundant.

We are also seeing new entrants and increased activity in the market. The supply of new seniors housing stock across the UK is increasing. In 2023, more than 9,140 new seniors housing units were built, up 19% on the previous year’s delivery and the strongest year for new supply since 2016.  Developers, such as Untold Living, are entering the market, and rental products from existing providers are really starting to take hold.

In short, the last two years have been extremely challenging for the sector. However, it is starting to feel as though the supportive policy environment needed for the sector to thrive might, finally, be in reach.

Maybe 2024 is the year that we finally start to plan to meet the need for seniors housing in full. After all, none of us are getting any younger…..

Nicola Gooch is a planning partner at Irwin Mitchell