Good riddance to 2023!

Most of us will be glad to see the back of 2023.  It has seen Michael Gove single handedly dismantle the house building industry, presumably on the basis he thinks every Tory voter is a NIMBY, a fierce protector of the green belt and determined to follow the Banana principle: Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anybody.

His recent announcement that he’s going to be really, really tough on councils who don’t build much might have fooled some of us were it not for the enthusiasm with which his announcement was greeted by Theresa Villiers, the Barnet MP who led the charge against compulsory targets.

This year will also be remembered for the office market coming under enormous pressure, the value of sheds falling and nothing materialising from government to ease the business rates burden on retailers. But 2024 is going to see a general election. Some say it could be as early as May. The argument is that in his first year as prime minister, Rishi has not reduced the gap between the parties by a single point. Why hang on? Give Labour less time to get their act together and force the 30% of voters who are still undecided to make their minds up. Better the devil you know.

It’s an interesting theory, but I still believe the big day will be between September and November.  Later and you look desperate, but most Tory MPs see the intervening months as buying time to release some better news on the economy and the cost of living and, frankly, for the party to start turning its fire on the risks the country would be taking if it elected a Labour government that has no practical experience of government.

Lest we forget, Labour is led by a man who campaigned to make Jeremy Corbyn prime minister and is scornful of the Rwanda solution to illegal migration yet has singularly failed to produce a convincing alternative. Starmer also still leads a team that believes that rich people (that’s you and me and virtually every reader of BE News) don’t pay enough tax. They think that by cancelling non-dom status, they’ll make £3bn. That’s not only classic Labour politics of envy, it’s also financially illiterate. We all know what non-doms will do if faced with a massive extra tax bill. They’ll leave.

Yet while there are lots of ways the Tories can cause many voters to pause before they tick a box in a polling booth, I still believe Labour will emerge with a majority of between 30 and 50 seats. They’ll win more in Scotland and take back many of the so-called red wall seats that had been Labour for decades but couldn’t stomach Corbyn. The Lib Dems will win a few from the Tories in the South West. Reform will syphon some right-wing Tories off but not win any seats.

The main issue is that this government is seen to have run out of ideas, its MPs squabbling among themselves. People feel it is time for a change. I spoke in a seminar recently in Washington with former members of Congress about the similarities and differences between two great liberal democracies. One notable difference is that the US has term limits and we don’t. Maybe not, but we do have sell-by dates and it turns out they’re just as effective. Think Thatcher, removed by her own MPs after 11 years and Sir Anthony Blair, removed by his own MPs after 10.

I retired from the Commons because in 1996 I could see we were going to lose for a decade. It turned out to be 13 years. This government has seen the referendum, the Covid pandemic, a fighting war in Europe and a massive rise in the cost of living and interest rates. You can’t win after 14 years with a record like that. It is end of days. Simple as that. Merry Christmas.