Are things getting better post election?

A rain-soaked Rishi Sunak cut a very sorry (and soggy) figure when he announced the general election would be on 4 July as Labour’s 1997 election win theme ‘Things can only get better!’ blared from nearby.

Many, including our esteemed columnist Steve Norris, questioned his political nous and berated his advisers for not allowing him to make the announcement from inside 10 Downing Street.

Me, I think Sunak did it deliberately, to spark pity, win a few sympathy votes and because he is past the point of caring. Given how slim his chances of victory are, why not play up the pathos and drama by braving the elements? It works in the movies. The ‘redemption in the rain’ trope is almost as well-worn as ‘romance in the rain’, as exemplified in The Dark Knight Returns, The Shawshank Redemption and Blade Runner. Why not in real life?

I appreciate that I am in a minority on the optics of Sunak’s ‘washout’ speech. But as Janis Joplin sang, ‘Freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose’, and ever since that speech, Sunak has seemed more carefree than anyone staring down the barrel of defeat has any right to be.

He has bounced along the campaign trail with giddy, Zebedee-like zeal, unveiling policy after policy, from National Service and a Triple Lock Plus on pensions to the introduction of 100,000 more apprenticeships and ending of the “poorest performing” university courses.

We will know on 4 July if any of this has landed with the public. Ditto the promises of tax threshold freezes, points on driving licences for fly-tippers and no income tax, National Insurance or VAT rises. In the meantime, despite the negative publicity surrounding Diane Abbott and Angela Rayner, the election is still seen as Keir Starmer’s to lose.

So, can things only get better under Labour? While most believe they can’t get any worse, for the real estate industry, the jury is out. Labour has not announced a single real estate-related policy since Sunak’s snap election call, its 10 policies majoring on the NHS, education and establishment of a publicly owned energy company and renationalisation of the railways.

That’s not to say that if it comes into power, it won’t turn its attention to former election campaigning mainstays such as housing, planning and foreign ownership of UK property. After all, Starmer only recently talked about allowing more ‘grey belt’ development and the need to ‘get Britain building again’. Throw in the anticipated fall in interest rates this summer and the market could be far less subdued in the second half of 2024 than expected a few weeks ago.

Time will tell whether a slightly improved economic outlook and the earlier than expected arrival of a new government will really be enough to restore confidence and resurrect the ‘Do more in ’24’ vibe from the start of the year, and market confidence is not all that needs to be restored. The broken housing market and broken relationship between industry and government also need fixing. You can’t fix the first without fixing the second. The industry will need to put its best lobbying foot forward, focusing on what it can deliver under the next government rather than what it wants from it if it is to improve relations and elevate the built environment back up the political agenda.

In the meantime, while the Tories have not closed the gap on Labour since the election was called, there could yet be a sting in the general election tail. In April, just a few lone voices were predicting a summer election. Now, just a few think the Tories could still nick a win or that there will be a hung parliament. Could another surprise be in store? Is Sunak chipper because he knows it will soon be all over and he can go back to spending his and his wife’s millions – or because he knows something we don’t?

Unlike the media, the main parties have avoided playing up the Independence Day theme, perhaps because in the US, Independence Day commemorates the Declaration of Independence from Britain. Independence from, independence of. Maybe it is just semantics, but as with the image of a rain-drenched Sunak, there are alternative reads – and a lot can happen between now and the UK’s ‘Independence Day’.

If Labour does win, it may be by a tighter margin than people think, especially if the assumption of a Labour victory leads to a lower than expected turnout and less tactical voting in its favour.

Could there be any other outcome? Probably not, but as the Brexit vote so spectacularly demonstrated, just because we assume something is impossible doesn’t mean it is.