The general election numbers are not reflective of what is going on in the UK right now
By
Steve Norris
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In the end, the pollsters got it broadly right. Labour now has 412 seats with a couple still to declare and the Tories have 121. So that’s it. A great night for Labour and near disintegration for the Conservative Party. But what the election actually demonstrated is the impact of our age-old voting system called ‘First Past the Post’.
Before we see a single statement of intent from the new government, just consider this. This huge majority came from 33.9% of the vote. The Tory share was 23.7%. Keir Starmer saw his own majority slashed and next door his nemesis Jeremy Corbyn was comfortably re-elected. That, incidentally, is almost unknown in British politics. The lone candidate rarely wins. Yet Corbyn won comfortably. Wes Streeting, one of the stars of the new administration saw his majority slashed to 500. Putting it another way, Starmer won with only 700,000 votes more than Corbyn lost by in 2019.
You may think this is all the spiteful ravings of an old Tory, but I promise it is not. I simply observe that the numbers are not reflective of what is going on in the UK right now. The facts behind the result are that the SNP self-immolated post Sturgeon and Humza and Labour took back seats they had held for decades before the SNP came along.
Reform attracted many Tories because their manifesto passed muster with millions of voters who would otherwise have voted Tory but who refused to do so because, like most of us, they were appalled at the way 14 years in government disintegrated into squabbling, self-serving incompetence after the first six.
Theresa May said no deal was better than a bad deal but patently didn’t mean it. She then called a general election and lost the majority she’d inherited. I have written many times before about the utter cynicism that was the hallmark of the Johnson years. Charming and eloquent no doubt but too often a stranger to the truth. Partygate has left a burning scar.
Of Truss all I need point out is that she is no longer an MP. Of Rishi I observe a decent, honest, hardworking serious man who doesn’t have a single political bone in his body. And then along comes Nigel and Reform. They did much better than most pollsters gave them credit for, winning four seats. They suffered from the early election call because they didn’t have the time to weed out all the racist nutters and general odd balls who the party’s leaders really did not want and it hurt them, but now they simply have to be taken seriously.
Add Reform’s 14.3% share of the vote to the Tories’ 23.7% and you have 38%. QED. As true in politics as ever, united we stand, divided we fall. Nigel and whoever leads the Tories (my money’s on Kemi) should recite that with their prayers each night before bed.
But now we have a Labour government with a clear majority for the next five years. As the rest of Europe swings right, the UK swings left. The new government now faces the same existential challenges that defeated their predecessor. They face the prospect of working with Trump in the White House. They need to appease the pro-Gaza lobby on their own benches. The boats will still arrive uninvited next week.
But we should wish them well and help them as much as possible to understand our industry, to help us meet their own expectations not only for more housing and a reformed planning system but for a vibrant economy that is served by an active property industry across the board.
Discover:
The general election numbers are not reflective of what is going on in the UK right now
By
Steve Norris
Share this:
In the end, the pollsters got it broadly right. Labour now has 412 seats with a couple still to declare and the Tories have 121. So that’s it. A great night for Labour and near disintegration for the Conservative Party. But what the election actually demonstrated is the impact of our age-old voting system called ‘First Past the Post’.
Before we see a single statement of intent from the new government, just consider this. This huge majority came from 33.9% of the vote. The Tory share was 23.7%. Keir Starmer saw his own majority slashed and next door his nemesis Jeremy Corbyn was comfortably re-elected. That, incidentally, is almost unknown in British politics. The lone candidate rarely wins. Yet Corbyn won comfortably. Wes Streeting, one of the stars of the new administration saw his majority slashed to 500. Putting it another way, Starmer won with only 700,000 votes more than Corbyn lost by in 2019.
You may think this is all the spiteful ravings of an old Tory, but I promise it is not. I simply observe that the numbers are not reflective of what is going on in the UK right now. The facts behind the result are that the SNP self-immolated post Sturgeon and Humza and Labour took back seats they had held for decades before the SNP came along.
Reform attracted many Tories because their manifesto passed muster with millions of voters who would otherwise have voted Tory but who refused to do so because, like most of us, they were appalled at the way 14 years in government disintegrated into squabbling, self-serving incompetence after the first six.
Theresa May said no deal was better than a bad deal but patently didn’t mean it. She then called a general election and lost the majority she’d inherited. I have written many times before about the utter cynicism that was the hallmark of the Johnson years. Charming and eloquent no doubt but too often a stranger to the truth. Partygate has left a burning scar.
Of Truss all I need point out is that she is no longer an MP. Of Rishi I observe a decent, honest, hardworking serious man who doesn’t have a single political bone in his body. And then along comes Nigel and Reform. They did much better than most pollsters gave them credit for, winning four seats. They suffered from the early election call because they didn’t have the time to weed out all the racist nutters and general odd balls who the party’s leaders really did not want and it hurt them, but now they simply have to be taken seriously.
Add Reform’s 14.3% share of the vote to the Tories’ 23.7% and you have 38%. QED. As true in politics as ever, united we stand, divided we fall. Nigel and whoever leads the Tories (my money’s on Kemi) should recite that with their prayers each night before bed.
But now we have a Labour government with a clear majority for the next five years. As the rest of Europe swings right, the UK swings left. The new government now faces the same existential challenges that defeated their predecessor. They face the prospect of working with Trump in the White House. They need to appease the pro-Gaza lobby on their own benches. The boats will still arrive uninvited next week.
But we should wish them well and help them as much as possible to understand our industry, to help us meet their own expectations not only for more housing and a reformed planning system but for a vibrant economy that is served by an active property industry across the board.
Steve Norris
Chairman
Soho Estates and a former MP and minister
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