‘The only poll that matters is the one on the day’

No need to tell you who’s going to win the next general election. But just a couple of thoughts from someone who’s fought four general elections, two London mayoral elections and been involved at the sharp end in many more.

First, the only poll that matters really is the one on the day. The idea the Tories will be left with just a handful of MPs is probably over pessimistic. Yes, a vote for Reform is a vote for Labour, but when I read that Rishi Sunak might lose his Richmond Yorkshire seat, I’m not buying it. I believe he’ll hold it.

Second, it’s extraordinary that while the same polls talk of a Labour landslide, none put Labour’s share of the vote at more than 40%. Most polls put the Tories on low 20s and Reform not far behind. What this does is highlight how first past the post can certainly produce stable government but always risks creating elective dictatorship.

If Labour has a majority of more than 150 seats, they can effectively do what they like for at least the next five years. That’s good in some ways because we will clearly be able to see what the party actually stands for and how effective their remedies are for our manifold problems. But there will be little real debate except within the government party itself, which is where the real arguments will take place. Whatever the official opposition says may gain the odd Daily Telegraph headline but will have zero impact on what happens in parliament.

Last time the issue of whether first past the post (FPTP) was preferable to proportional representation, I was very much in the FPTP camp, but the likely outcome this time has changed my mind. When a party with 40% gets hundreds of seats while two parties of the centre and harder right get 40% between them but get very few seats, it is surely time to revisit our age-old enthusiasm for the current system. Trouble is those who could allow that change are the people doing so well under the existing system and I know that because when my party was in power with a large majority, it was the last thing we wanted.

Unlike Tony Blair in 1997, Labour this time inherits very high levels of debt, interest rates that are still at more than 5% (when only less than three years ago they were at practically nothing), inflation now back to 2% but with underlying inflation too high for the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee and little or no plans to reduce public spending.

That’s not an easy wicket by any stretch of the imagination and not helped by the signals coming out of Labour HQ, which suggest more spending on public sector wages are the price of peace with the trade unions. Whatever Rachel Reeves says now is frankly unimportant. What matters is what she might have to be saying in 12 months’ time. Taxes will rise and the middle-class taxpayers will, as ever, bear the brunt.

As to what the property industry can expect from the new government, Labour looks as though it is going to produce more homes than the Tories not least because it intends to reinstate mandatory housing targets, which were a pillar of the 2008 Planning Act. Whether their more ambitious plans for new towns can emerge in five years is less certain, but full marks if they at least get them started.

Elsewhere, the office, retail and sheds markets will look for business rates reform, streamlined planning and reduced interest rates. They’ll almost certainly get the rate reduction, probably from August onward, but the others will lie untouched as more urgent priorities intervene. If Labour aren’t careful, it won’t be long before the grumbling starts. ‘This lot are as bad as the last lot’ will echo through every pub in the land. For now, we should all wish the new administration well.